Atmospheric modeling data assimilation and predictability by Eugenia Kalnay

By Eugenia Kalnay

This entire textual content and reference paintings on numerical climate prediction covers for the 1st time, not just tools for numerical modeling, but additionally the $64000 similar parts of information assimilation and predictability. It contains all elements of environmental desktop modeling together with an ancient evaluation of the topic, equations of movement and their approximations, a latest and transparent description of numerical tools, and the choice of preliminary stipulations utilizing climate observations (an vital new technology referred to as info assimilation).

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The RAFS (triple nested NGM and OI) were implemented in 1985. The Eta model, designed with advanced finite differences, step-mountain coordinates, and physical parameterizations, was implemented in 1993, with the same 80-km horizontal resolution as the NGM. It was denoted “early” because of a short data cut-off. The resolution was increased to 48 km, and a first “mesoscale” version with 29 km and reduced coverage was implemented in 1995. A cloud prognostic scheme was implemented in 1995, and a new land-surface parameterization in 1996.

Note that the human forecasts are on the average significantly more skillful than the numerical guidance, but it is the improvement in NWP forecasts that drives the improvements in the subjective forecasts. 6 Nonhydrostatic mesoscale models The hydrostatic approximation involves neglecting vertical accelerations in the vertical equation of motion, compared to gravitational acceleration. This is a very good approximation, even in stratified fluids, as long as horizontal scales of motion are larger than the vertical scales.

Courtesy of R. ) Dashes indicate the control forecast. 1 Historical overview of numerical weather prediction 30 in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and cold phases (La Ni˜na episodes) with cold anomalies. NCEP started performing multiseasonal predictions with coupled comprehensive atmosphere–ocean models in 1995, and ECMWF did so in 1997. A single atmospheric forecast forced with the SST anomalies would not be useful beyond the first week or so, when unpredictable weather variability would mask the forced atmospheric anomalies.

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